Campaign

Webb vs. Allen: A study of contrasts

By David Francis, Washington Examiner

August 22, 2006

On the campaign trail, Democratic Senate challenger Jim Webb often recounts a 2003 meeting with incumbent Sen. George Allen, R-Va., in which Webb said he warned Allen not to support the Bush administration’s plan to invade Iraq. According to Webb, Allen refused to dissent against administration policy and voted to authorize the war.

Webb — who endorsed Allen in Virginia’s 2000 Senate race — said this moment inspired him to change parties and run against Allen. It has also opened Webb to criticism from Allen’s camp that he is an opportunist that will change his political views when convenient.

“If I was running for the [Virginia] House of Delegates, or governor or U.S. Senate, letting people know what my guiding principles are, they see I keep my word. Integrity matters,” said Allen, who dismissed the idea that his meeting with Webb was the reason his opponent changed parties. Allen said he thought Webb’s decision was more related to President George W. Bush’s policy.

Allen’s philosophy has resonated with voters. Allen was a commonwealth delegate from 1983-91; a U.S. representative from 1991-93; governor from 1994-98 and U.S. senator since 2001.

In a speech Wednesday, Webb defended his transformation from a Reagan Republican who worked in the Pentagon in the 1980s, to a moderate Democrat. He argued that his political beliefs do not require him to subscribe to the ideals of one party.

“When I was debating Sen. Allen, he made a comment to me about the fact I had worked with both political parties over the years,” Webb said. “That’s called bipartisanship. There was only one robot up on the stage at the time and that was the guy that voted with the president 97 percent of the time.”

Political analysts attribute Webb’s change to his opposition to the administration’s policy on the Iraq war.

“The most consistent explanation for the change is Iraq,” said Jennifer Duffy, editor of the Cook Political Report. “I don’t know if it started in 2003, if it started last year, but it’s definitely Iraq.”

“Iraq is the motivating reason,” added Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “He felt very strongly about it, and to be honest, he was right.”

Sabato said Webb likely became disillusioned with the Republican Party, and felt the only way to change their policies was to work against him.

“He didn’t leave the Republican party. The Republican party left him,” he said.

Sabato said Allen, on the other hand, has shown remarkable consistency throughout his political career.

“If consistency is your standard, he is your man, but if you think consistency is the hobgoblin for small minds, then you have to vote for somebody else,” he said.

The senator may have had problems carving out his own image because the very popular senior Sen. John Warner overshadowed him, said Toni Travis, a George Mason University political scientist.

“He has gotten to the U.S. Senate and he is seeking re-election and he is going to say the same old thing and run on the same old record. I think the issues are more complicated than they were before, mostly because of the war. The complexity increases, but Allen is still a Virginian, which to me means 19th century, not 21st century, somehow,” she said. “There is limited growth or expansion of thinking, but real consistency.”

Examiner Staff Writer Christy Goodman contributed to this report

Webb strikes more populist tone

By David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Sept. 22, 2006

Jim Webb, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, is striking a softer, more populist tone with voters, talking about personal issues like his son¹s service and his own service as a wounded and decorated company commander in Vietnam.

Webb is shunning the policy-heavy speeches that dominated earlier campaign stops and talking now about his Virginia heritage and his life in this state.

Webb¹s new style was evident in a speech in Old Town Alexandria earlier this week, when he emphasized he has worked since he was 12 years old, that he served as a Marine officer and was severely wounded in Vietnam and his son now serves in Iraq now. He came across as more relaxed than he had in previous stops, wearing a tight grin and motioning with his hands to make points and galvanize the crowd.

“We need to put the government back in the hands of the people who do not have a voice in the corridors of power,” Webb said. “We risk being cut away from our government, our democracy.”

Jessica Smith, a spokesman with Webb’s campaign, said he has become more comfortable in the limelight after recent televised debates with incumbent Republican George Allen and as he travels across the state.

“People are embracing the ideas he¹s been talking about,” she said. “That makes him more confident.”

“He comes across as authentic because he is authentic,” Smith said. “He has not come across as a smooth, slimy politician. He comes across as an authentic person with convictions and ideas that are being embraced by Virginia.”

Experts following the race said it would be difficult for Webb to steal the “everyman” image from Allen, who they said has made a career convincing voters he is not much different than them.

Webb has repeatedly reminded voters Allen is from Southern California, but in the past this has not kept Allen from finding political success in Virginia.

“It's going to be really hard to pull off against George Allen, who is in many ways the king of appearing to be a populist,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the Sorenson Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. “His ‘aw shucks’ campaign style with cowboy boots and everything really gives people the impression that he’s one of them.”

“The amazing thing about populism is that it’s not based in reality, it's about image and how you present yourself,” he said.

George Mason political scientist Toni Travis said Webb¹s military background should help him connect with voters.

“I think [populism is] a very reasonable approach, particularly because of the emphasis of military culture in Virginia,” she said. “Webb comes off as having populist values, having served his country loyally.”

Webb said he’s raised $3M

But he¹s still far behind Allen in Senate fundraising race

By David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer
Oct. 2, 2006

Jim Webb, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, has raised roughly $3 million, campaign spokeswoman Jessica Smith said.

The financial disclosure, due to the Federal Elections Commission by Oct. 15, reveals Webb still trails incumbent Republican George Allen financially.

As of the June 30 campaign finance-filing deadline, Allen had raised more than $10 million. As of the same deadline, Webb had raised $1.1 million.

Smith said Webb has “a little less” than the $3 million on hand, as some of the money had been spent on campaign activities. She said the campaign was still working to determine an exact number, and would file their finance records later this week.

Webb was not concerned about his financial disadvantage, Smith said.

“We’ve always thought all along that we wouldn’t have as much money as the Allen campaign,” she said. ³I think it will keep us competitive.”

Dick Wadhams, campaign manager for Allen, said the campaign would not disclose how much money Allen had raised until Oct. 15, the last day for filing with the federal government.

Webb’s disclosure comes as the latest poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research found the two tied with the election just over a month away.

Campaigning over the coming weeks is likely to be heavy and fierce, as the two sides have been trading barbs since the summer.

Mark Rozelle, a political expert at George Mason University, said the financial disadvantage would hurt Webb. He said negative attention paid to Allen because of questions about his view towards minorities has helped close the gap between the two, but that Webb has not had a chance to sell himself to Virginians. The lack of money could make this difficult.

“Jim Webb can¹t get a message out to voters,” he said. “So far it’s been negative for Allen, not positive for Webb.”

“This might be a little bit of a wake-up call to potential contributors,” Rozelle added.

Experts: Webb needs late push for chance to win

David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Oct 25, 2006

Richmond - Experts following the Virginia Senate race said Democratic challenger Jim Webb’s failure to form a solid identity in the eyes of voters could benefit Republican incumbent George Allen, who is an established political figure in the state.

A recent Mason-Dixon poll shows Webb trailing Allen by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent, two weeks before the election. According to the poll, Allen leads in all areas of Virginia except Northern Virginia, where Webb holds a 10-point lead.

The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points. Earlier polls showed the two in a dead heat.

“This whole campaign to a large degree has rotated around Allen,” said George Washington University political science professor Steve Balla. “Webb needs to frame the debate. I don’t think he’s been able to effectively articulate who he is and what his candidacy is all about.”

He said the four-point lead should not be taken as an indication Allen is pulling ahead.

“There’s enough uncertainty about the [poll] that it isn’t something I want to take to the bank,” he said.

George Mason political scientist Toni Travis said she thinks the race will be close, but it will be difficult for Webb to win without a late campaign push.

“Webb is not pushing hard enough,” she said. “It should be a real knock down, drag out [race] at this point.”

Another factor that could play into the elections outcome is the endorsement of Richmond Democratic Mayor and popular black leader Doug Wilder. Travis said his endorsement — which would likely be of Webb — could play a significant role in how blacks, especially blacks in Richmond, vote. Webb trails Allen by 17 points in the Richmond metro area.

“It’s [Wilder’s] timing,” Travis said. “If he’s going to do it, be better do it soon.”

Darcy Hickman, an official with Wilder’s press office, said she was not aware of any planned announcement.

“I don’t know if that’s going to be something that’s coming later,” she said. “It hasn’t come yet.”

Richmond Mayor Wilder endorses Webb

Newest poll shows Webb with a slight lead over Allen

By David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Oct. 26, 2006

Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder endorsed Democrat Jim Webb Wednesday, a move that some said could swing thousands of voters to the former Navy secretary in the race for U.S. Senate against Republican George Allen.

“I am going to vote for Jim Webb on November 7th, and I am going to ask Virginians to support me in doing that because I think that Jim Webb is the right man for Virginia,” Wilder, a Democrat, said in a statement. “I am very proud to be here today to say publicly: Not only do I intend to vote for Jim Webb, but I endorse him wholeheartedly.”

Wilder is one of the most prominent black leaders in the U.S. and was the first person of his race to be elected governor of a state. He served as governor of Virginia from 1990 to 1994.

Wilder’s announcement came as a surprise. On Tuesday, his office told The Examiner there were no plans for an endorsement.

Just last week, Wilder was supposed to attend an event with Allen, but instead sent a top aide.

Allen has been endorsed by prominent black state Sen. Benjamin Lambert. Webb has received the support of the Virginia Black Legislative Caucus.

Wilder’s announcement in Richmond comes as a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows Webb with a slim 47 to 44 lead over Allen. This is the first poll that shows Webb with an outright advantage.

The poll was conducted over the phone from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23 and has a 5 percent margin of error. The sample size is 385 likely voters.

Experts said Wilder’s endorsement could mobilize black voters.

“I suspect a lot of African-American voters are confused right now” because both candidates have been endorsed by black leaders and questions have been raised about each candidate’s attitudes toward race, said Sean O’Brien, director of the University of Virginia’s Sorenson Center for Political Leadership. “To have Doug Wilder step in and say he’s going to support Jim Webb will, in a lot of people’s minds, clear up the confusion.”

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Wilder’s endorsement is not a guarantee black voters will choose Webb.

“How much time are Webb and Wilder going to spend on the campaign trail together,” Sabato said, “going to black churches, campaigning in black precincts and making sure the black vote is activated?”

Third-party candidate shakes up Senate race

By David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Oct. 31, 2006

Richmond - In a race as close as the one between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb, 2 percent of voters could make the difference.

Independent Green candidate Gail Parker seems to have realized this and is using the 2 percent of the vote she got in a recent poll on the Senate race to get one of the candidates to back her proposals.

Polls show Webb and Allen in a statistical dead heat with a week left until the election.

After going relatively unnoticed in the campaign, in the last week, Parker — who refers to herself as Gail for Rail, in reference to her support for a high-speed rail system connecting Washington, Richmond, Virginia Beach and Roanoke — is suddenly a factor. Last week, she told The Examiner that she had no plans to withdraw from the race.

“I’m in this race,” she said, adding that she believes the polls underestimated how strong she was running.

According to reports the following day, Parker was negotiating with both camps about dropping out of the race, putting the 2 percent she received in the most recent poll up for grabs.

This week, Parker seems to be walking a tight rope between staying in and dropping out. On a local radio show Monday morning, Parker said it was impossible for her to withdraw because her name was on the ballot and could not be removed before next week’s election. When pressed about whether reports of her dropping out were a publicity stunt, Parker was evasive.

“It’s impossible for me to drop out,” she said. “My name is on the ballot and will be on the ballot.”

In a subsequent interview with The Examiner, Parker refused to commit to staying in the race.

“We are talking or trying to open up lines of communication with the other candidates,” she said. “Because I was shut out of the debates, they haven’t heard my message.”

When asked what she was talking to the campaigns about, Parker said, “The word that the challenger’s campaign manager has used is ‘endorsement.’ ”

Webb’s campaign did not return calls for comment. Allen’s campaign manager Dick Wadhams confirmed speaking with Parker’s campaign manager.

“I met with Parker’s campaign manager last week, where he talked about his candidate’s issue positions. I understand that Parker dropped by the campaign office earlier and dropped off similar information, but I did not meet with her,” he said.

Parker said she dropped off a legislative proposal identical to the one she gave Webb’s campaign and is optimistic she will get a response from each camp.

She added that she is considering holding a news conference in Alexandria this afternoon but would not indicate what would be addressed.

Allen, Webb race too close to call

David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Nov 8, 2006

Richmond - The Virginia Senate race between incumbent Republican George Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb was too close to call as of press time.

With more than 70 percent of precincts reporting, Allen had 819,892 votes, just more than 50 percent of the vote, while Webb drew 782,930, or more than 48 percent of the vote.

Turnout was heavy, with Democratic and Republican operatives outside of Northern Virginia polling stations saying the number of voters was double that of the 2004 presidential election. Arlington and Alexandria went heavily in favor of the challenger.

Polls had shown Allen and Webb in a statistical dead heat going into Election Day.

In May, when Webb defeated Harris Miller in the Democratic primary, few expected the race to be close. In the first poll following the primary, Allen held a 19-point lead over Webb, a former Republican and political novice.

Webb is a decorated Marine, a journalist and served as the secretary of the Navy under President Ronald Reagan. He considered himself a Democrat until becoming disillusioned with the party after returning from Vietnam, and became a Republican. He said frustration with the Bush administration foreign policy and its handling of Hurricane Katrina prompted him to switch back to the Democratic side to challenge Allen.

Allen is a Southern California native who graduated from the University of Virginia and served in the General Assembly and as governor of Virginia before being elected to the Senate in 2000. Before this campaign, he was considered a front-runner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, but many believe he sustained too much political damage during this campaign to be competitive.

Character issues largely dominated the campaign. Questions about Allen’s attitudes toward race surfaced inside the Beltway at the start of the campaign, but drew national attention when he was captured on video calling a Webb campaign volunteer “macaca,” a term some considered to be insensitive. Allen was dogged with additional questions including whether he used racial slurs and charges he was uncomfortable with his Jewish heritage.

Webb also faced questions about character. Female graduates of the Naval Academy criticized him for a 1979 article he wrote called “Women Can’t Fight” that they said made their time at the academy more difficult.

But the gap between Allen and Webb continued to close, and national Democrats, sensing an upset, poured money into the state and brought out national stars — including Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, President Bill Clinton and Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder — in support of Webb. Allen campaigned heavily with Senior Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner.

The outcome of the race is likely going to hinge on turnout. Webb needs a strong showing from women and Northern Virginia, while Allen needs rural voters to go to the polls.

Allen concedes Senate victory to Webb

David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Nov 10, 2006

Arlington - Republican George Allen conceded to rival Senate candidate Democrat Jim Webb Thursday, capping a major upset that gives Democrats control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1994.

“We have a much stronger Democratic party” because of the victory, Webb told supporters at a late afternoon rally at Arlington Courthouse. “Mark Warner began a journey, Tim Kaine added to it. We are going to add to it even more.”

The Associated Press called the race for Webb Wednesday night.

Webb — a decorated Marine, former Republican and political novice who served as the secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan — pledged to work toward a diplomatic solution to the Iraq war, and raise the minimum wage. He struck a moderate but stern tone and promised to fight for the middle class.

“I am indebted to you, and I will not forget my loyalties,” Webb said to his supporters.

Webb defeated Allen by about 7,200 votes out of more than 2.3 million.

Since Tuesday, Allen’s camp had considered calling for a recount, but decided against it when canvassing showed the incumbent did not gain any ground on the challenger.

Allen’s concession ends a bitter, hard-fought campaign in which the incumbent senator saw a double-digit lead over Webb disappear. Once considered a Republican front- runner for president, the loss all but shatters Allen’s 2008 hopes.

Experts said Webb’s centrist campaign and Allen’s inability to dispel questions about his racial views led to the upset.

In August, he called a Webb campaign volunteer “macaca,” a term some considered to be insensitive. He was dogged by questions about his use of racial slurs and his Jewish heritage, a heritage he denied before acknowledging late in the campaign.

“(Webb) subscribes to many of the standard Democratic issues, but not to all of them,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the Sorenson Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. “It’s going to take him a while to get his sea legs, but once he does, he will be a strong voice in the middle” of the Senate’s ideological spectrum.

Richard Clarke, the former counterterrorism chief and critic of President George Bush, said Webb’s military experience would make him an invaluable voice in the Senate.

“I do know that Jim Webb is not a politician,” he said. “He will be a frank, honest voice in terms of national security.”

Allen delivers final message on Senate floor

David Francis, Examiner Staff Writer

Dec 7, 2006

WASHINGTON - U.S. Sen. George Allen, R-Va., took the floor of the Senate to deliver a farewell address Wednesday with his political future uncertain and his 2008 presidential ambitions destroyed.

In his final remarks, Allen said little about his future, but looked back on the challenges faced and overcome while governor and senator. He ended his time with these words in praise of his colleagues:

“We never gave up. We never backed down. And we always stood strong for freedom.”

Last spring, Virginia’s Senate seat was largely seen as a lock for Republicans. Allen was a charismatic and popular former state legislator and governor with strong political ties. Sen.-elect Jim Webb was a former Republican and political novice with no fundraising network. Then, in August, Allen used the term “macaca” to describe a Webb campaign worker of Indian-descent, forever altering his political future. Critics said the remark was racially insensitive.

Allen lost to Webb, who campaigned primarily on opposition to the Iraq War, by less than 10,000 votes, giving control of Congress to the Democrats for the first time since 1994. Webb — a decorated veteran and military expert — has already been a vocal critic of Bush administration foreign policy, and is expected to shape the debate on how to deal with the War in Iraq in the new Congress.

“The macaca moment will always be a footnote for him in history,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the Sorenson Center for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. “That comment has an important impact on the future of the country because it’s why Jim Webb is Senator.”

O’Brien said Allen could return to the political arena, likely as a candidate for Virginia governor in 2009. Many believe former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner and former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore could also run, making the campaign a battle of political heavyweights. O’Brien said this race would indicate whether the recent Democratic trend in Virginia will continue.

“The 2009 contest could really say a lot about the future of Virginia,” he said.